Lightweight
3 Rounds
Vagner Rocha won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupCody McKenzie: WrestlervsVagner Rocha: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Vagner Rocha wins(52.1%)
Actual result: Vagner Rocha wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Cody McKenzie threatens submissions; Vagner Rocha has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Cody McKenzie has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Cody McKenzie has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Vagner Rocha has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cody McKenzie (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Cody McKenzie
Red Corner
VS
Vagner Rocha
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
38
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cody McKenzie
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Yves Edwards · Jan 11W
SUBvs Marcus LeVesseur · May 12L
KOvs Chad Mendes · Jul 12W
vs Leonard Garcia · Apr 13L
vs Sam Stout · Dec 13Vagner RochaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cody McKenzieMetricVagner Rocha
1.74
Strikes / min
2.64
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
67%
Strike defense
48%
2.50
TDs / 15 min
1.40
14%
Takedown defense
50%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.76Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cody McKenzieVagner Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cody McKenzie(7 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.5-17.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Cody McKenzie
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7
Vagner Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4