Welterweight
5 Rounds
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, March 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupColby Covington: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(59.9%)
Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Colby Covington enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Colby Covington
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Masvidal
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
38
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby CovingtonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Jorge MasvidalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricJorge Masvidal
3.81
Strikes / min
4.05
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
54%
Strike defense
64%
3.64
TDs / 15 min
1.38
68%
Takedown defense
72%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Colby CovingtonJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+60.8-60.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-196.0196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Jorge Masvidal
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights22