Welterweight
5 Rounds
Colby Covington won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, September 19, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(61.0%)
Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tyron Woodley has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Colby Covington
Red Corner
VS
Tyron Woodley
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
38
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Tyron WoodleyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Demian Maia · Jul 17W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricTyron Woodley
3.81
Strikes / min
2.36
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
54%
Strike defense
54%
3.64
TDs / 15 min
1.06
68%
Takedown defense
87%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Colby CovingtonTyron Woodley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.2-36.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Tyron Woodley
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15