Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Aleksandre Topuria won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 8, 2025·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Aleksandre Topuria wins(52.3%)
Actual result: Aleksandre Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aleksandre Topuria has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Aleksandre Topuria has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Colby Thicknesse
Red Corner
VS
Aleksandre Topuria
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
26
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby Thicknesse
oldest →latest
W
vs Josias Musasa · Sep 25Aleksandre Topuria
oldest →latest
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby ThicknesseMetricAleksandre Topuria
3.24
Strikes / min
2.93
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
54%
Strike defense
68%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
1.50
33%
Takedown defense
100%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31evenly matched on net striking+0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Colby ThicknesseAleksandre Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Thicknesse(2 fights)Aleksandre Topuria(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Colby Thicknesse
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2
Aleksandre Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2