Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Colby Thicknesse won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 27, 2025·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Colby Thicknesse wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Colby Thicknesse wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Colby Thicknesse has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Josias Musasa has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Josias Musasa (53.5%).
- Josias Musasa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Colby Thicknesse
Red Corner
VS
Josias Musasa
Blue Corner
+134
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-158
(61%)
26
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby Thicknesse
oldest →latest
L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Feb 25Josias Musasa
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Carlos Vera · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby ThicknesseMetricJosias Musasa
3.24
Strikes / min
3.19
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
54%
Strike defense
36%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
0.90
33%
Takedown defense
81%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.31Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Thicknesse(2 fights)Josias Musasa(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Colby Thicknesse
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2
Josias Musasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2