Lightweight
3 Rounds
Cole Miller won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Sunday, August 14, 2011·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Cole Miller wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Cole Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Cole Miller threatens submissions; TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Cole Miller has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- TJ O'Brien has a 11cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Cole Miller
Red Corner
VS
TJ O'Brien
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
196 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cole MillerL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13W
SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14L
vs Max Holloway · Feb 15L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16L
vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16TJ O'Brien
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Paul Kelly · Nov 10Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cole MillerMetricTJ O'Brien
3.00
Strikes / min
3.77
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
4.78
59%
Strike defense
57%
0.60
TDs / 15 min
0.94
38%
Takedown defense
0%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.88evenly matched on net striking-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cole MillerTJ O'Brien
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cole Miller(10 fights)TJ O'Brien(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.4-19.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Cole Miller
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights12
TJ O'Brien
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach—
Fights2