Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, November 6, 2013·Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA, USA
Style matchupColton Smith: WrestlervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Colton Smith has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
- Michael Chiesa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Colton Smith
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chiesa
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colton SmithL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Mike Ricci · Dec 12L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colton SmithMetricMichael Chiesa
1.64
Strikes / min
2.02
2.30
Strikes absorbed / min
1.73
51%
Strike defense
57%
4.09
TDs / 15 min
3.11
25%
Takedown defense
65%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Colton SmithMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colton Smith(4 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.716.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Colton Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22