Welterweight
4 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Colton Smith won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 15, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Colton Smith wins(62.1%)
Actual result: Colton Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Colton Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mike Ricci has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mike Ricci has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mike Ricci (53.5%).
- Mike Ricci has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Colton Smith
Red Corner
VS
Mike Ricci
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-300
(75%)
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colton SmithL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Nov 13L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14Mike Ricci
oldest →latest
W
vs Colin Fletcher · Mar 13L
vs Myles Jury · Sep 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colton SmithMetricMike Ricci
1.64
Strikes / min
1.80
2.30
Strikes absorbed / min
1.64
51%
Strike defense
65%
4.09
TDs / 15 min
0.67
25%
Takedown defense
54%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.16
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colton Smith(4 fights)Mike Ricci(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Colton Smith
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Mike Ricci
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3