Welterweight
5 Rounds
Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 18, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(65.7%)
Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Conor McGregor
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
37
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Nate Diaz · Aug 16W
KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Conor McGregorMetricDonald Cerrone
5.32
Strikes / min
4.41
4.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
54%
Strike defense
53%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
1.16
66%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Conor McGregorDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Conor McGregor(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-22.422.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+343.0-343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Conor McGregor
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37