Welterweight
5 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 5, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(60.3%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Conor McGregor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Conor McGregor has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Conor McGregor
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-425
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
37
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Conor McGregorL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Conor McGregorMetricNate Diaz
5.32
Strikes / min
4.57
4.66
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
1.05
66%
Takedown defense
41%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Conor McGregorNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Conor McGregor(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+73.2-73.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Conor McGregor
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18