Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kazuki Tokudome won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 2, 2013·Saitama, Japan, Japan
Model Prediction: Cristiano Marcello wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Kazuki Tokudome wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kazuki Tokudome enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kazuki Tokudome has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kazuki Tokudome (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Cristiano Marcello
Red Corner
VS
Kazuki Tokudome
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
48
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cristiano Marcello
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Sam Sicilia · Jun 12W
vs Reza Madadi · Oct 12L
vs Joe Proctor · Feb 14Kazuki TokudomeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Norman Parke · Jul 13L
vs Yui Chul Nam · Mar 14L
SUBvs Johnny Case · Sep 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cristiano MarcelloMetricKazuki Tokudome
2.56
Strikes / min
2.26
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
58%
Strike defense
53%
0.44
TDs / 15 min
2.00
20%
Takedown defense
78%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.05evenly matched on net striking-1.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cristiano MarcelloKazuki Tokudome
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cristiano Marcello(4 fights)Kazuki Tokudome(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.748.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Cristiano Marcello
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4
Kazuki Tokudome
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4