Featherweight
3 Rounds
Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 12, 2019·Tampa, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(63.6%)
Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kron Gracie threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Cub Swanson has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kron Gracie (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Cub Swanson
Red Corner
VS
Kron Gracie
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cub Swanson
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Dec 21L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23L
vs Andre Fili · Jun 24W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24Kron GracieL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Caceres · Feb 19L
vs Charles Jourdain · May 23L
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cub SwansonMetricKron Gracie
4.84
Strikes / min
2.95
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
5.73
59%
Strike defense
51%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
0.35
63%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cub SwansonKron Gracie
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cub Swanson(10 fights)Kron Gracie(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.5-20.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-76.076.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.81.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.7-2.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Cub Swanson
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights25
Kron Gracie
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4