Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, February 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(55.6%)
Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 73% of fights by KO.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Curtis Blaydes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derrick Lewis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Curtis Blaydes
Red Corner
VS
Derrick Lewis
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
35
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
203.2 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25Derrick Lewis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricDerrick Lewis
4.18
Strikes / min
2.46
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
53%
Strike defense
39%
5.12
TDs / 15 min
0.55
35%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Curtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Curtis Blaydes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19
Derrick Lewis
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31