Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Curtis Blaydes won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 23, 2019·Nashville, Tennessee, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Willis enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Curtis Blaydes
Red Corner
VS
Justin Willis
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
35
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25Justin WillisW4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17W
vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18W
vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricJustin Willis
4.18
Strikes / min
3.37
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
53%
Strike defense
57%
5.12
TDs / 15 min
0.96
35%
Takedown defense
36%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Curtis BlaydesJustin Willis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-8.48.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Curtis Blaydes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19
Justin Willis
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5