Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 23, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(50.5%)
Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Curtis Blaydes
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Curtis Blaydes
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Mar 22L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25Tom Aspinall
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Curtis BlaydesMetricTom Aspinall
4.18
Strikes / min
7.63
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
53%
Strike defense
56%
5.12
TDs / 15 min
2.62
35%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Curtis BlaydesTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+39.9-39.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Curtis Blaydes
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19
Tom Aspinall
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10