Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Carla Esparza won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 30, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fightervsCarla Esparza: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(57.0%)
Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Cynthia Calvillo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Cynthia Calvillo has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Cynthia Calvillo
Red Corner
VS
Carla Esparza
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+180
(36%)
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'1"
162.56 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21L
KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21L
vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22L
vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21W
vs Rose Namajunas · May 22L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cynthia CalvilloMetricCarla Esparza
4.41
Strikes / min
2.19
4.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
64%
Strike defense
54%
1.80
TDs / 15 min
3.28
77%
Takedown defense
47%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Cynthia CalvilloCarla Esparza
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.6-46.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Cynthia Calvillo
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights12
Carla Esparza
StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15