Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · Submission R3
Elo1511
Elo1495
Grant DawsonvsMateusz Rebecki
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(71.3%)
Scouting Report
- Mateusz Rebecki has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Grant Dawson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Grant Dawson
Mateusz Rebecki
—
Vegas Odds
—
1511
1495
32
33
Switch
Southpaw
5'10"
5'7"
182.88 cm
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Grant Dawson
oldest →
KOvs King Green · Oct 23
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25
latestMateusz Rebecki
oldest →
SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24
vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Grant DawsonMetricMateusz Rebecki
3.14
Strikes / min
4.79
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.36
44%
Strike defense
54%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
3.05
66%
Takedown defense
53%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
EVEN
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14
Mateusz Rebecki
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9