Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 1, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDamir Ismagulov: Well-roundedvsGrant Dawson: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(59.1%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Damir Ismagulov has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Damir Ismagulov
Red Corner
VS
Grant Dawson
Blue Corner
-116
(54%)
Vegas Odds
-102
(50%)
35
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Damir Ismagulov
oldest →latest
W
vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Rafael Alves · May 21W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Damir IsmagulovMetricGrant Dawson
3.36
Strikes / min
3.14
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
61%
Strike defense
44%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
3.58
70%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Damir IsmagulovGrant Dawson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-52.952.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Damir Ismagulov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13