Lightweight
3 Rounds
Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 23, 2019·Prague, Czech Republic, Czech Republic
Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(62.3%)
Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Damir Ismagulov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Damir Ismagulov
Red Corner
VS
Joel Alvarez
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Rafael Alves · May 21W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23Joel AlvarezW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Damir IsmagulovMetricJoel Alvarez
3.36
Strikes / min
4.53
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
61%
Strike defense
53%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
0.18
70%
Takedown defense
46%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.92evenly matched on net striking+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Damir IsmagulovJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.5-18.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Damir Ismagulov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7
Joel Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights10