Featherweight
3 Rounds
Dan Argueta won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 14, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Dan Argueta wins(56.7%)
Actual result: Dan Argueta wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dan Argueta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Dan Argueta has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Nick Aguirre has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dan Argueta
Red Corner
VS
Nick Aguirre
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
32
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan ArguetaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Damon Jackson · Jun 22L
SUBvs Jean Matsumoto · Apr 24L
vs Cody Haddon · Oct 24Nick Aguirre
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Payton Talbott · Nov 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan ArguetaMetricNick Aguirre
2.48
Strikes / min
0.73
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
50%
Strike defense
45%
4.36
TDs / 15 min
1.16
55%
Takedown defense
33%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.96Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dan ArguetaNick Aguirre
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Argueta(4 fights)Nick Aguirre(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.215.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.149.1
Dan Argueta
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4
Nick Aguirre
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2