Welterweight
3 Rounds
Chris Lytle won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Sunday, August 14, 2011·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(52.4%)
Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Lytle has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Dan Hardy has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dan Hardy
Red Corner
VS
Chris Lytle
Blue Corner
-104
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-106
(51%)
44
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan HardyW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10L
KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10L
vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12W
vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12Chris Lytle
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10W
vs Matt Serra · Sep 10L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan HardyMetricChris Lytle
2.46
Strikes / min
3.76
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
51%
Strike defense
58%
0.73
TDs / 15 min
0.70
35%
Takedown defense
55%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
2.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.98Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dan HardyChris Lytle
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Hardy(6 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-66.466.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Dan Hardy
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6
Chris Lytle
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4