Middleweight
3 Rounds
Nate Marquardt won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2011·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupDan Miller: Submission grapplervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Dan Miller wins(56.4%)
Actual result: Nate Marquardt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nate Marquardt has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Dan Miller
Red Corner
VS
Nate Marquardt
Blue Corner
+285
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-315
(76%)
44
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan MillerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10L
vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11W
SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12L
KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13L
vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan MillerMetricNate Marquardt
2.03
Strikes / min
2.71
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
49%
Strike defense
55%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
1.87
47%
Takedown defense
70%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.03Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dan MillerNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Miller(8 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.4-18.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Dan Miller
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8
Nate Marquardt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14