Welterweight
3 Rounds
Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDan Stittgen: Well-roundedvsStephen Thompson: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(60.4%)
Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dan Stittgen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Stephen Thompson has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Dan Stittgen has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stephen Thompson has a 11cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Dan Stittgen
Red Corner
VS
Stephen Thompson
Blue Corner
+290
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
45
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
180 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan Stittgen
oldest →latest
L
vs Marcelo Guimaraes · Jul 12Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan StittgenMetricStephen Thompson
2.97
Strikes / min
4.05
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
37%
Strike defense
54%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
0.23
100%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap+1.05
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Stittgen(2 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Dan Stittgen
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21