Flyweight
3 Rounds
Luis Gurule won · Decision R3
Elo1492
Elo1446
Daniel BarezvsLuis Gurule
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Daniel Barez wins(56.9%)
Scouting Report
- Luis Gurule enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Barez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Barez
Luis Gurule
—
Vegas Odds
—
1492
1446
37
32
Orthodox
Orthodox
5'6"
5'5"
167.64 cm
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Daniel Barez
oldest →
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Jul 23
vs Victor Altamirano · Sep 24
SUBvs Andre Lima · Mar 25
latestLuis Gurule
oldest →
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25
vs Jesus Aguilar · Sep 25
vs Alden Coria · Feb 26
SUBvs Rei Tsuruya · May 26
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Daniel BarezMetricLuis Gurule
3.65
Strikes / min
4.47
5.95
Strikes absorbed / min
4.74
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.93
TDs / 15 min
0.58
80%
Takedown defense
58%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Daniel BarezLuis Gurule
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
EVEN
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Daniel Barez
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3
Luis Gurule
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights5