Middleweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Kelly won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2016·Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, Australia
Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsAntonio Carlos Junior: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(59.1%)
Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Kelly has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
- Antonio Carlos Junior has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Carlos Junior
Blue Corner
+385
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-485
(83%)
48
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17W
SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · May 19L
vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19L
vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricAntonio Carlos Junior
3.62
Strikes / min
1.95
4.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
61%
Strike defense
52%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
3.42
78%
Takedown defense
53%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel KellyAntonio Carlos Junior
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.9-18.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-140.0140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Antonio Carlos Junior
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11