Middleweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Kelly won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 26, 2016·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(62.6%)
Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Kelly has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
- Chris Camozzi has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Chris Camozzi
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
48
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Chris CamozziL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tom Watson · Aug 15W
KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16W
vs Vitor Miranda · May 16L
SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16L
vs Trevor Smith · May 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricChris Camozzi
3.62
Strikes / min
3.57
4.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.27
78%
Takedown defense
57%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel KellyChris Camozzi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.1-40.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Chris Camozzi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights19