Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Patrick Walsh has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18 Patrick Walsh
oldest →W
vs Daniel Spohn · Jul 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricPatrick Walsh
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel KellyPatrick Walsh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Patrick Walsh(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -125.2|Blue +125.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -124.0|Blue +124.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel KellyTargetPatrick Walsh
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Patrick Walsh edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Patrick Walsh edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
