Middleweight
3 Rounds
Sam Alvey won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2015·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsSam Alvey: Striker
The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.
Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(51.6%)
Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Sam Alvey
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
48
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Spann · May 20L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricSam Alvey
3.62
Strikes / min
3.28
4.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
61%
Strike defense
52%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.06
78%
Takedown defense
82%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel KellySam Alvey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.8-15.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+8.0-8.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.81.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Sam Alvey
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23