Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tom Breese won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Sunday, May 27, 2018·Liverpool, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupDaniel Kelly: Well-roundedvsTom Breese: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Tom Breese wins(51.2%)
Actual result: Tom Breese wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Breese is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Kelly
Red Corner
VS
Tom Breese
Blue Corner
+315
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-380
(79%)
48
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'3"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17Tom Breese
oldest →latest
W
vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricTom Breese
3.62
Strikes / min
3.34
4.64
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
61%
Strike defense
60%
1.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
78%
Takedown defense
70%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+0.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel KellyTom Breese
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.6-8.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-532.0532.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Tom Breese
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8