Featherweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Pineda won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 25, 2023·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupDaniel Pineda: Submission grapplervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Daniel Pineda wins(57.5%)
Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Tucker Lutz has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Tucker Lutz has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Pineda
Red Corner
VS
Tucker Lutz
Blue Corner
+250
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-310
(76%)
40
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel PinedaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20L
vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24Tucker LutzL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel PinedaMetricTucker Lutz
2.85
Strikes / min
3.74
3.26
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
45%
Strike defense
44%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
1.99
54%
Takedown defense
69%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel PinedaTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Pineda(10 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.314.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+343.0-343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Daniel Pineda
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13
Tucker Lutz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4