Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ian Machado Garry won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 13, 2023·Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, USA
Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(52.5%)
Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Ian Machado Garry has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Daniel Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Ian Machado Garry
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-300
(75%)
39
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 24W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel RodriguezMetricIan Machado Garry
7.20
Strikes / min
4.78
5.40
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
57%
Strike defense
52%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
0.92
64%
Takedown defense
80%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Daniel RodriguezIan Machado Garry
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+66.0-66.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Daniel Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Ian Machado Garry
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8