Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sam Patterson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 1, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDanny Barlow: Pressure fightervsSam Patterson: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Danny Barlow wins(62.5%)
Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Barlow is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sam Patterson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Danny Barlow has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Danny Barlow has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Danny Barlow (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Danny Barlow
Red Corner
VS
Sam Patterson
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
30
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny Barlow
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Feb 24W
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Aug 24L
vs Djorden Santos · Oct 25Sam Patterson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Yanal Ashmouz · Mar 23W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25L
vs Michael Page · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny BarlowMetricSam Patterson
5.81
Strikes / min
2.62
4.65
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
52%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.82
100%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.16Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Danny BarlowSam Patterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Barlow(4 fights)Sam Patterson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.3-18.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
Danny Barlow
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights4
Sam Patterson
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6