Lightweight
3 Rounds
Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 5, 2012·East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsJohn Cholish: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(58.7%)
Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- John Cholish has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- John Cholish has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Danny Castillo
Red Corner
VS
John Cholish
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
46
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15John Cholish
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Mitch Clarke · Dec 11L
SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny CastilloMetricJohn Cholish
2.57
Strikes / min
2.65
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
62%
Strike defense
73%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
1.82
63%
Takedown defense
78%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Danny CastilloJohn Cholish
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Castillo(10 fights)John Cholish(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.3-18.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-20.020.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.1-2.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14
John Cholish
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3