Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Felder won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 3, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsPaul Felder: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(53.5%)
Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Danny Castillo
Red Corner
VS
Paul Felder
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
46
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny CastilloL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Paul FelderL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Perry · Jul 18W
vs James Vick · Feb 19W
vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19L
vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny CastilloMetricPaul Felder
2.57
Strikes / min
3.70
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
62%
Strike defense
48%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
0.29
63%
Takedown defense
64%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Danny CastilloPaul Felder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Castillo(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.1-28.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14
Paul Felder
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15