Lightweight
3 Rounds
Danny Castillo won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 19, 2011·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(72.2%)
Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Danny Castillo has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Shamar Bailey (53.5%).
- Shamar Bailey has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Danny Castillo
Red Corner
VS
Shamar Bailey
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15Shamar Bailey
oldest →latest
W
vs Ryan McGillivray · Jun 11L
vs Evan Dunham · Sep 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny CastilloMetricShamar Bailey
2.57
Strikes / min
1.56
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
62%
Strike defense
69%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
1.50
63%
Takedown defense
37%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Danny CastilloShamar Bailey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Castillo(10 fights)Shamar Bailey(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.8-2.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+34.0-34.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Danny Castillo
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14
Shamar Bailey
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3