Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 4, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(54.9%)
Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jeremy Stephens has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jeremy Stephens has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Danny Downes
Red Corner
VS
Jeremy Stephens
Blue Corner
+300
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny Downes
oldest →latest
L
vs Ramsey Nijem · Oct 11Jeremy StephensL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Mar 19L
vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20L
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21L
vs Mason Jones · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny DownesMetricJeremy Stephens
1.66
Strikes / min
3.13
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
37%
Strike defense
57%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.10
37%
Takedown defense
61%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.87Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Danny DownesJeremy Stephens
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Downes(2 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.518.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+48.1-48.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Danny Downes
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2
Jeremy Stephens
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights26