Welterweight
3 Rounds
Danny Roberts won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Thursday, December 10, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsNathan Coy: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Nathan Coy wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nathan Coy has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Danny Roberts has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Danny Roberts
Red Corner
VS
Nathan Coy
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
38
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Danny RobertsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19W
vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22L
KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23Nathan Coy
oldest →latest
W
vs Jonavin Webb · Feb 16L
SUBvs Zak Cummings · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Danny RobertsMetricNathan Coy
3.18
Strikes / min
3.88
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.40
50%
Strike defense
61%
0.24
TDs / 15 min
3.17
57%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.55Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap+1.48
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Danny Roberts(10 fights)Nathan Coy(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Danny Roberts
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14
Nathan Coy
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3