Middleweight
3 Rounds
David Branch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 21, 2018·Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupDavid Branch: WrestlervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Thiago Santos wins(55.4%)
Actual result: David Branch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- David Branch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). David Branch has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Thiago Santos has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
David Branch
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Santos
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
David BranchL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11W
vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17L
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18L
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
David BranchMetricThiago Santos
1.66
Strikes / min
3.72
1.91
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
56%
Strike defense
53%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.88
43%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.25Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
David BranchThiago Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
David Branch(9 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-79.079.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
David Branch
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24