Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason Novelli has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jason Novelli has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors David Teymur (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
David Teymur
oldest →W
KOvs Martin Svensson · Feb 16W
vs Lando Vannata · Mar 17W
vs Drakkar Klose · Dec 17L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Feb 19 Jason Novelli
oldest →L
DECvs Polo Reyes · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
David TeymurMetricJason Novelli
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.16Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap-1.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
David TeymurJason Novelli
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
David Teymur(6 fights)Jason Novelli(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +133.3|Blue -133.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
David TeymurTargetJason Novelli
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1David Teymur edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:01
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2David Teymur edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
