Welterweight
5 Rounds
Demian Maia won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 27, 2016·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(76.5%)
Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demian Maia has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
48
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Carlos Condit
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricCarlos Condit
1.80
Strikes / min
3.66
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
0.59
61%
Takedown defense
38%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaCarlos Condit
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+79.0-79.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Carlos Condit
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17