Welterweight
3 Rounds
Colby Covington won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 28, 2017·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsColby Covington: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(50.0%)
Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+100
(50%)
48
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricColby Covington
1.80
Strikes / min
3.81
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
63%
Strike defense
54%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
3.64
61%
Takedown defense
68%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.2-19.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17