Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 14, 2020·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(62.0%)
Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Demian Maia has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
48
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian Maia
oldest →latest
L
vs Kamaru Usman · May 18W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricGilbert Burns
1.80
Strikes / min
3.16
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
63%
Strike defense
52%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.04
61%
Takedown defense
53%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.1-16.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24