Welterweight
3 Rounds
Demian Maia won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 12, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demian Maia has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Gunnar Nelson
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
48
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricGunnar Nelson
1.80
Strikes / min
1.77
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
63%
Strike defense
48%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.00
61%
Takedown defense
68%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaGunnar Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.0-17.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16