Welterweight
3 Rounds
Demian Maia won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 14, 2016·Curitiba, Parana, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Demian Maia wins(60.9%)
Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Matt Brown
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
48
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Matt Brown
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricMatt Brown
1.80
Strikes / min
3.76
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.92
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
1.68
61%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.84
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaMatt Brown
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+31.1-31.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Matt Brown
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25