Welterweight
3 Rounds
Demian Maia won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 1, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupDemian Maia: WrestlervsNeil Magny: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(51.8%)
Actual result: Demian Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demian Maia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
- Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Demian Maia
Red Corner
VS
Neil Magny
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
48
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
vs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21Neil Magny
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricNeil Magny
1.80
Strikes / min
3.40
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
63%
Strike defense
51%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
2.17
61%
Takedown defense
55%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.27Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+0.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Demian MaiaNeil Magny
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-43.943.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Demian Maia
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights26
Neil Magny
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37