Lightweight
3 Rounds
Donald Cerrone won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 29, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDennis Siver: Elusive strikervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(56.4%)
Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Dennis Siver has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Dennis Siver
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
47
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dennis Siver
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13W
vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15L
vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15W
vs BJ Penn · Jun 17Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dennis SiverMetricDonald Cerrone
3.87
Strikes / min
4.41
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
65%
Strike defense
53%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
1.16
65%
Takedown defense
73%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.20Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Dennis SiverDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dennis Siver(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.8-2.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+43.0-43.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Dennis Siver
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37