Middleweight
3 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 10, 2017·Auckland, New Zealand, New Zealand
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(62.6%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Daniel Kelly has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Daniel Kelly has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derek Brunson has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Kelly
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
42
Age
48
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Daniel KellyL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricDaniel Kelly
3.51
Strikes / min
3.62
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.64
51%
Strike defense
61%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
1.86
85%
Takedown defense
78%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonDaniel Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-20.620.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10