Middleweight
5 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(68.6%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Darren Till
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
42
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Darren TillL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricDarren Till
3.51
Strikes / min
2.30
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.31
51%
Strike defense
56%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
0.55
85%
Takedown defense
69%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonDarren Till
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.3-64.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-238.0238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Darren Till
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11