Middleweight
3 Rounds
Dricus Du Plessis won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsDricus Du Plessis: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(56.2%)
Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Dricus Du Plessis
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
42
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek Brunson
oldest →latest
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22Dricus Du Plessis
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23W
vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24W
SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24W
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricDricus Du Plessis
3.51
Strikes / min
5.18
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
51%
Strike defense
52%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
2.22
85%
Takedown defense
34%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonDricus Du Plessis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.3-45.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+301.0-301.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Dricus Du Plessis
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights10