Middleweight
5 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, March 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(63.4%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Derek Brunson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
- Kevin Holland has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Derek Brunson
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Holland
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
42
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
205.74 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Kevin HollandL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricKevin Holland
3.51
Strikes / min
4.24
3.05
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
51%
Strike defense
50%
3.14
TDs / 15 min
0.79
85%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Derek BrunsonKevin Holland
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+10.3-10.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21
Kevin Holland
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27